WorldOpinion Research Profiles: ACNielsen BASES
The Challenge of Forecasting the Future

Date: 09/01/98 12:00:00 AM
By Jacqueline Lorch.
Based on interviews conducted in July, 1998.

Part 1: History and Company Profile

"Every day ... we take on a formidable challenge -- forecasting the future," says ACNielsen BASES, the Covington, Kentucky-based research organization whose primary focus is in new product research for consumer packaged goods companies. The company has a major global market share in the simulated test marketing business. ACNielsen BASES was founded in the mid-1970s, as one of a group of Booz, Allen and Hamilton companies, specializing in test marketing.

A significant event in the company's early history was the hiring of Dr. Lynn Lin from Pillsbury. Lin used consumer purchase panel data from a split cable test marketing company called AdTel, to build and calibrate models that were the initial prototype of the sophisticated models the company uses today.

Client profile

Right from the start "BASES' focus was on fast-moving consumer goods," says president Steve Wilson. "Our Principal clients [in the US] are top 100 advertisers in packaged goods. We tend to focus on clients that have an active new product introduction program. ...We try to build a relationship ... where we become almost institutionalized in our client's new product process. ... The more we can understand the client, the higher value we can provide. ... We're really trying to put ourselves on the client's team." Wilson views ACNielsen BASES's role as participatory rather than consultative. Whereas in the past researchers were treated as outsiders, more companies now see researchers as true partners, engaging them in thinking about the company's critical issues, he believes.

ACNielsen BASES specializes in estimating the likely sales volume of a new product, and diagnosing the factors that will drive sales volume potential, as well as those that may limit it. The company says their forecasts fall on average, within 9% of eventual sales for any given product. They are able to achieve this kind of accuracy because of the large number of cases we've conducted over the years [over 18,000 in 60 countries] and the large number of those that have actually gone to market, says Ken Knipmeyer, executive vice president of US client service. That has allowed ACNielsen BASES to observe predicted performance versus actual performance and that in turn lets them calibrate more accurately the workings of the models. Over the next several years, BASES expects to make significant changes to its models. The company invests heavily in research and development to keep the models up-to-date and reflective of current market conditions and consumer behavior.

ACNielsen BASES has approximately 450 employees. Headquarters are in Covington, KY, with offices in Westport, CT; Parsippany, NJ; Chicago, IL and San Ramon, CA.

A distinctive ACNielsen BASES characteristic is the company's focus on research and development. ACNielsen BASES spends over 20% of their revenue on R&D, which is very high for a research company. Commitment to learning is what distinguishes their company, says Joe Willke, executive vice president for global product management and development, who adds that they consider it a a very good investment in the future.

The biggest growth area for ACNielsen BASES currently is in its base business of new product research for consumer packaged goods companies. The custom research area hasn't realized the same growth level, because it doesn't offer the same opportunities for standardization as the company's core business.

Primary databases

ACNielsen BASES's primary databases are the following:

Global Key Measures -- A database of results for over 18,000 product ideas tested in more than 60 countries. This database can be used to evaluate a concept or product in comparison with others in the same category or sub-category.

MarketBase -- A consolidated system of custom-built databases, including continuously updated household panel data, scanner data, and a database of over 1,250 new brands across more than 75 categories.

Global Validations -- Comparison of ACNielsen BASES forecasts to actual in-market results for over 860 new product introductions worldwide (over 450 of them in North America).

Part 2: International Business

"International is a high growth area for us," says Sandy Eubank, who heads the BASES International Research division, based in Westport, CT. "Our international business is growing faster than our domestic business."

Eubank has been with ACNielsen BASES for 12 years, working in the international area for the last three years. The international business at the company was largely developed by one person who went out and found the company's partners, she says. Eubank now has a staff of over 20 and expects to hire nine more this year.

Global competition

The company's global reach is a major reason clients come to BASES. "This wasn't an issue in the US ten years or even five years ago, " says Eubank, but clients are no longer interested in doing little pieces of research in one or two countries. "Our biggest competitors now are no longer US companies," she adds, "but global organizations."

A major initiative

A major initiative on the international front is to improve efficiency. "We have a major challenge to ... bring the international product up to a much higher standard," says Wilson. "Servicing is a challenge because we haven't developed the critical mass in some of those countries to develop the expertise in the client service people. So we're working very hard with our partners and licensees to try to find ways to raise the skill and knowledge level outside the US so it's consistent with the US."

To further this effort, client service groups have been set up and assigned a geographic territory, so they can get to know a particular country and its nuances very well. Other client service groups work with one client or group of clients. US staff have been providing "more consulting, more recommendations ... and started to create some general learning," says Eubank. "We assigned some very experienced US people to that." Adds Wilson, "Eventually what we'd like to do is find a way to consolidate the expertise coming from smaller markets. ... Maybe that means regionalizing local support for emerging countries."

"The transfer of information and knowledge, and trying to get everybody up at the same level is the biggest challenge," says Wilson. Both Willke and Eubank say they have spent at least 50% of their time overseas during the past six months.

International growth

International growth, while generally strong, has varied by geography. "Europe has grown side by side with the US," says Wilson. "It's a fairly mature business; we've been there 18 years. I think fastest growing beyond Europe has been Asia Pacific." The economic problems in the region don't seem to have affected business for BASES. "I think most of the packaged goods companies that are working in Asia Pacific are in it for the long haul," says Wilson. "Products tend to be lower-priced items that are more commodity-like, and the market potential there is huge," he adds.

Data collection methods are very different outside the US. Much US data collection is done in shopping malls, which don't exist in many of the 56 countries where AC Nielsen BASES does business. Door-to-door interviewing is the preferred method in most countries.

Similarities and differences

While the differences are marked, Eubank says there are many similarities, too. Outside the US, they are often working for the same companies, on the same types of project, and trying to provide the same quality and satisfaction overseas as they do within the US.

"I was surprised to go to all these countries and meet our partners and find that of course there are language differences ... but the companies themselves are made up of the same type of people, often very similar personalities, similar internal company cultures, similar work behaviors," says Eubank.

Part 3: The Burke Institute and Vantis International

Vantis International

Vantis International, an ACNielsen BASES division formed last year, focuses on non-packaged goods initiatives, and counts banking, healthcare, entertainment, telecommunications and high-tech companies among its clients. Based in San Ramon, Vantis is "a newly formed company, but not a newly formed proposition," says Wilson. The company formerly operated as BASES Services and Durables Division, but the company found that new product issues for industries outside the packaged goods area are very different, tending to be more design-oriented than evaluative. "The types of studies we conducted didn't have the same consistency or standard protocol we use in BASES, so we felt that it was appropriate to ... establish a new business," says Wilson.

Thousands of organizations have sent employees to the Burke Institute for training during this division's quarter century in the research education field. About 3,000 students attend the institute's 150 seminars each year. "Everyone from Procter & Gamble, all the utilities, financial institutions...," says president Sid Venkatesh.

The institute also conducts about 50 custom seminars each year for individual organizations.

History of the institute

"We were the first ones to start a seminar program in the industry," says Venkatesh, who founded the group in 1973 as part of the Burke research organization. Burke began the institute "to enhance the image of the company," says Venkatesh. In 1989 the Burke group of companies, then owned by Controlled Data, split into separate entities, and The Burke Institute is now part of AC Nielsen BASES, and has no connection with Burke, Inc.

As well as the dozens of seminars throughout the US, the institute has been conducting seminars in 27 or 28 countries outside the US for several years now. The level of experience of students varies depending on the type of seminar offered, says Venkatesh. Some attendees have MBAs, PhDs and many years of experience in the industry, while others are just starting out.

Now that the institute has joined the ACNielsen group, there will be much more training conducted overseas, says Venkatesh. Although ACNielsen also has an internal organization, the Nielsen University, which is designed to educate employees, "we are putting a lot of the employees through our seminars as well," he adds.

Certification programs

The Institute has several certification programs, which "have been extremely successful," says Venkatesh. Several companies require their staff to complete a certification program from the institute before they are promoted at the company. "We have a quantitative certificate, a qualitative certificate and a much more comprehensive certificate of proficiency in marketing research."

The issue of certification for researchers

Venkatesh has been involved in the industry initiative to implement a standard, industry-wide certification system for the past 15 years. Seven years ago he served on a committee formed by the AMA that put together a recommended core body of knowledge for the industry. However, he acknowledges that the recommendation "doesn't really have much teeth." Venkatesh describes the certification issue as one that is raised periodically in the industry, but which has yet to be acted upon. The issue is currently a hot topic once more, with lively debates at recent industry conferences on the pros and cons of certification.

"I'm all in favor of some kind of certification," says Venkatesh. "We are a professional discipline, and a lot of us have got our doctorates in the field, so we have spent as much time as any MD. No one can practice medicine without credentials and in marketing research, unfortunately, we don't have that. Anyone can hang out a shingle."

Venkatesh acknowledges that in spite of the recent state of discussion of the issue, "based on history it doesn't look like anything is really going to happen."

Experts more than trainers

The Burke Institute has a total of ten staff; six who are speakers, and four who make up the administrative, marketing and client service staff. All six speakers have academic backgrounds. Three have doctorates in business and have taught in business schools. Two others have doctorates in psychology and all have worked in the industry for many years. "They are not trainers, but experts in specific fields," says Venkatesh. "We look at it as consulting rather than just simply as training. Instead of just bringing in a trainer and handing them a training manual and saying 'go ahead and do it, ' ... these people are educators and they are also consultants."

New initiatives

"Now that ACNielsen is our parent we are in the process of getting into newer areas," says Venkatesh. The new schedule of seminar topics that will be developed by the end of the year, is likely to include more international research and internet topics, he adds.

Currently, most seminars are conducted in English, although simultaneous translation has been used recently in sessions in Venezuela, Japan and Italy, among other countries. Within the next year, as the institute begins to train the 22,000 ACNielsen employees overseas, as well as many of Nielsen's clients, Venkatesh expects to begin more local-language teaching. "We may do [seminars] in Cantonese and a few other languages," he says.

Part 4: BASES Joins the ACNielsen Group

ACNielsen BASES was bought by ACNielsen at the end of June 1998. Having been a $65-million privately owned business, it thus became part of a $2-billion research conglomerate. BASES will be operated as a subsidiary, with its own board of directors.

Commenting on the sale, Jack Brown, BASES chairman said: "By joining with ACNielsen, we will now have much better access to marketplace information and technology that will enhance our offerings to clients. Further, this new relationship affords our people enhanced opportunities for professional growth and development."

New data sources

As Brown said, the most significant benefit of the alliance is the access BASES gains to ACNielsen's extensive databases, especially outside the US. "We have for a long time been buying data in the United States to help us understand the marketplace and build our models," says Wilson. (Both ACNielsen and IRI had been data providers to BASES.) "The quest has been to get the same kind of data around the world. It's been prohibitively expensive to try to buy contracts across the categories we want. The fact that we're now part of ACNielsen allows us to have those data and we're very excited and anxious to start using them."

In the US, ACNielsen monitors supermarket, drug, and mass merchandise outlets, and they also monitor a variety of these types of outlets overseas. As well as store sales data, in many countries ACNielsen has household panels, offering further detailed data. The new data "will definitely improve our current models ... because we'll be able to look at things we have tested and forecasted and compare our forecasts with what actually happened in the market. ... It will definitely help with forecast accuracy," adds Willke.

"A treasure trove of information"

"The Nielsen data is a treasure trove of information. We have a lot of good modelers. The challenge for us is to make this potential synergy a reality," says Willke. One challenge is to determine how BASES will access the data. "We have to do a lot of things right otherwise it just stays a great opportunity," says Willke.

While there will be synergies and benefits in the alliance, the companies are also different in fundamental ways. "We're a project-driven business," says Wilson. "Most of ACNielsen's business in the US is as a contract or long-term data provider." How will the cultures of these two different companies mesh?

"BASES has always enjoyed a culture that puts our clients first," says Wilson. "We're a client-focused business. In order to do a good job for our clients we have to have people who are committed and ... motivated." Wilson says they are hearing the same priorities from ACNielsen, and he expects "we'll be encouraged to maintain that culture."

Global partnerships

The other big advantage of the ACNielsen alliance is the access it provides to new global client relationships. BASES licenses their products globally and has partners around the world. The ACNielsen alliance will change some of these arrangements. "Our European partners Infratest Burke have represented BASES since about 1981," says Wilson, "and they will continue to be our sales agent in Europe. ACNielsen is our representative in the Asia Pacific and obviously they will continue to do that . The rest of the world is covered by independent country, or smaller, licensees, many of whom will continue with us."

Part 5: Looking Ahead

Recent advances in technology have had an impact on ACNielsen BASES on a number of fronts. Most importantly in the ability technology offers for managing information in the company's databases more efficiently. "Our models are dependent on being able to access and manipulate data from lots of databases including all our studies but also including a lot of market tracking information and panel data," says Wilson.

"We've also been able to take advantage of data collection technologies," says Wilson. "In 1991 we shifted all our data collection from paper and pencil to CAPI and that really allowed us to cut a significant amount of time off our delivery."

A major initiative for the company now is to investigate data collection via the internet. There are currently no plans to use the internet for recruiting respondents, says Wilson. The company's models are all built around talking to the principal grocery shopper in the household, so recruiting online poses significant sampling problems.

Staffing challenges

The biggest challenge for BASES Worldwide over the past four or five years has been one common to many market research organizations -- inadequate staffing to support the company's growth. "We have been working very hard to build training programs and people development programs," says Wilson, and the company is trying to speed up the development of the staff currently as well as recruit new people.

Scarce respondents: creative responses required

The other almost equal challenge is finding respondents, says Wilson. "That's becoming more difficult and that's really why the internet proposition came up."

"The industry is going to have to be innovative in the way we use respondents," Wilson continues. "One of the things we're testing in our internet experiment is the proposition where we would accept people to participate on a fairly frequent basis in our studies. We're testing whether or not the data that are gathered over time from a respondent are biased by that kind of a relationship." Wilson believes that inevitably there will be fewer and fewer people willing to participate in research studies in the future. "We're going to have to find ways to leverage the base of people who are interested in participating in market research. ... I don't know the answer and we don't have enough data right now to understand whether 'professional respondents' is indeed the answer. ... It's a problem the industry faces and we're going to have to get fairly creative in solving it."

Copyright 1998 WorldOpinion

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